POV: I am waiting for prices in Marbella to drop

Waiting for a property price drop in Marbella is a strategy that has proven expensive. According to data from Notaries, the cost per square metre has risen consistently for a decade.

If you bought 10 years ago in 2015, you paid €2,214 per square metre. Buying today in 2025 costs €4,424 per square metre. Waiting those 10 years increased your entry price by 100%.

Inflation has further eroded spending power for international buyers. Since 2015, a British buyer has seen UK inflation rise by approximately 40%. This means £100,000 in 2015 has the equivalent lifestyle purchasing power of only £71,000 today.

And for a Swedish buyer, the impact is similar. With Swedish inflation rising roughly 25% in the same period, 1,000,000 SEK from 2015 now buys what 800,000 SEK did then.

The data shows that timing the bottom of the market often leads to paying a higher premium later. Capital appreciation and inflation have moved faster than most buyers can save.

Historical Opportunity Cost

The data confirms that waiting has been the most expensive choice over the last decade. In Marbella, the “real value” has not experienced a significant correction at least since 2014. A buyer waiting for a 10% drop while the market is growing at 10% per year loses ground twice: once to the price increase and once to the lost time they could have spent using the property.

Please note – risks to this argument:

• Past Performance: Historical growth does not guarantee future results. The chart shows a steepening curve toward 2025; if this is a “bubble,” the argument for buying now is riskier.

• Interest Rates: If a buyer waits and prices drop 5%, but mortgage rates rise 2%, their monthly carrying cost might still be higher than if they had bought at the peak.

• Liquidity: The “cost” of waiting is only realised if the buyer eventually enters the market at a higher price or never enters at all.

Statistical methodology by Spains Notaries in calculating this information is available here