Prices vs Realised Values: Decoding Málaga Province’s Housing Data

Headlines about Spain’s property market often focus on record asking prices, but portal listings tell only part of the story.

According to Idealista’s July 2026 House Price Index, the average asking price for a second-hand home in Málaga Province reached €4,272/m², up 7.6% compared to a year earlier.

However, official figures from Spain’s General Council of Notaries present a different picture. The latest available notary data, covering May 2026, shows the average price paid for resale homes was €3,095/m².

Comparing these two benchmarks reveals a clear gap: Asking prices are around €1,177/m² higher than completed transaction prices. That means asking prices are 38% higher than sold prices or, viewed from the opposite direction, completed prices are 27.5% below average asking prices.

This doesn’t mean buyers are routinely negotiating 38% off asking prices. Instead, the gap reflects the fact that the two datasets measure different parts of the market. While negotiation certainly occurs, the divergence is largely explained by differences in the properties each dataset captures.

Measuring Sentiment vs. Measuring Reality

To understand the €1,177/m² spread, it is necessary to examine what each metric captures:

• Idealista (Market Sentiment & Stock): Tracks active advertised listings, which reflect what sellers hope to achieve. High-end luxury properties in prime coastal locations such as Marbella, Benahavís, and Estepona take longer to sell, remaining on portals for extended periods. This over-weights the index toward the higher end of the market. Before you ask: No, the idealista data does not include duplicates

• Notary Data (Market Reality & Flow): Records the final price signed on every deed across the province, including inheritances, corporate transfers and distressed sales, many of which never appear on consumer property portals.

The two datasets represent different populations of properties moving at different speeds. High-value stock tends to be over-represented in portal listings, while lower-priced, faster-moving properties make up a larger share of notarial completions.

Key Structural Factors Behind the Gap

Beyond property composition, three additional factors widen the gap between portal figures and completed sales:

1. The Math

While advertised asking prices are 38% higher than closed sale prices, this does not mean the average seller accepts a 38% discount. Mathematically, a reduction from €4,272/m² down to €3,095/m² represents a 27.5% reduction from asking price. Conflating a 38% markup over sold prices with a 38% discount off asking prices alters the calculation of buyer negotiations.

2. The Contract Time Lag

In Spanish real estate, a deed completed before a notary in May typically reflects a private purchase contract (arras) agreed upon two to five months earlier, between January and March. Comparing July listing prices with spring completion figures introduces a 3 to 6 month time lag. In an appreciating market growing at 7.6% annually, temporal lag may account for a noticeable portion of the difference.

3. Off-Market and Non-Standard Transactions

Notary registries capture all real estate transfers, including family inheritances, corporate restructuring, and distressed bank sales that occur below open-market value and never appear on property portals.

Conclusion for Buyers and Investors

This gap does not necessarily mean sellers accept 27.5% discounts across all transactions. Without segmented, municipal-level data comparing asking versus sold prices for identical property types, such as comparing a two-bedroom Golden Mile apartment asking price directly against its closed deed price, it is not possible to isolate the exact negotiation margin.

However, evaluating both datasets together provides a clearer view of the Costa del Sol market:

• Idealista measures seller confidence and asking-price trajectory in real time.

• Notary records measure realised market value across the broader region.

Asking prices track market expectations, while completed sales prices reflect actual transactions. Both are useful indicators when interpreted side by side.

Sources: Idealista House Price Index (July 2026) and the General Council of Notaries (May 2026 resale housing statistics).