Spain: Property Sales Trends (2007-2025)

Based on monthly data provided by Spain’s Notaries on home sales, the following trends and patterns were observed for the specified regions and the total market.

1. Overall Market Trends (Total)

The data, spanning from January 2007 to May 2025, reveals a clear cycle in the housing market, with a major downturn followed by a period of recovery and subsequent growth.

• Peak and Decline (2007-2013): The market started at a high point in early 2007, with a peak of over 91,000 transactions in March 2007. This was followed by a sharp and sustained decline, reaching a low point in August 2010 (19,154 transactions) and again in August 2013 (14,970 transactions), marking the bottom of the market crash.
• Gradual Recovery (2014-2019): From 2014 onwards, the market began a slow but steady recovery. The monthly transaction volume showed a consistent upward trajectory, with peaks and troughs getting progressively higher.
• COVID-19 Impact (2020): The market experienced a sharp, temporary dip in April and May 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, with transactions plummeting to around 15,000-26,000. However, this was followed by a rapid rebound in the second half of 2020.
• Recent Growth and Stabilisation (2021-2025): The period from 2021 saw a strong surge, reaching new post-crisis highs, with sales often exceeding 60,000 per month. The data for 2024 and early 2025 suggests a stabilisation at these higher levels.
• Seasonal Pattern: There is a clear seasonal trend, with sales consistently peaking in the spring (March-June) and autumn (September-October) and dipping significantly during the summer (August) and winter (January and December).

2. Regional Trends

The trends in the selected regions largely mirror the national Total trend, but with some notable differences in magnitude, volatility, and timing.

• Andalucia
  • Trend: Follows the national pattern closely. It experienced a sharp decline from its 2007 peak (over 19,000 sales) to its low in 2013, followed by a strong recovery.
  • Magnitude: Andalusia is a major contributor to the national total, consistently having one of the highest transaction volumes of any region, second only to Madrid and Catalonia for much of the period. Its sales volume is roughly 15-20% of the total.
  • Seasonality: The seasonal pattern is very pronounced, with summer months (especially August) showing a sharp drop, likely influenced by its status as a holiday destination.
• Balearic Islands
  • Trend: The Balearic Islands market is significantly more volatile. It experienced a massive boom and bust cycle, with its sales plunging from a peak of over 2,500 in May 2007 to less than 200 in early 2013. The recovery from 2014 onwards has been strong but subject to more fluctuation than the national average.
  • Magnitude: This is one of the smaller markets, but its proportional impact on the total is significant during market highs.
  • Seasonality: The region shows a strong seasonal pattern, with sales generally higher in the spring and lower in the late summer and winter, which aligns with tourism and seasonal property transactions.
• Canary Islands
  • Trend: The Canary Islands market followed the general downturn but recovered at a somewhat different pace. Its decline was less severe in the initial phase compared to other regions, and its recovery was more gradual.
  • Magnitude: The transaction volume is consistently lower than the larger regions but higher than Murcia.
  • Seasonality: The seasonal drop in August is present but less severe than in Andalusia or the Balearic Islands, potentially due to the year-round tourism and second-home market.
• Valencian Community
  • Trend: The Valencian Community’s market trends are highly correlated with the national total. It experienced a steep decline from its peak of over 4,300 sales in 2007 to a low of around 800 sales in mid-2011, followed by a steady recovery.
  • Magnitude: This region is a major market, similar in size to Andalusia, and is a significant driver of the national total.
  • Seasonality: Like Andalusia, it shows a clear seasonal pattern with a distinct dip in August, reflecting its coastal and holiday-home market characteristics.
• Murcia
  • Trend: Murcia’s market followed the overall trends of boom, bust, and recovery. The decline from its peak in 2007 was dramatic, and the subsequent recovery has been robust, albeit from a lower base.
  • Magnitude: This is the smallest of the analysed regions by transaction volume, consistently having the lowest number of sales among the group.
  • Seasonality: The seasonal pattern is visible but less pronounced than in the other coastal regions, with less extreme highs and lows.

Summary of Key Trends

• All regions experienced a dramatic decline in housing sales from 2007 to the market bottom in 2013.
• The recovery phase from 2014 onwards was consistent across the board, with all regions showing a general upward trend, indicating a broad market revival.
• The COVID-19 pandemic caused a temporary but universal disruption in sales, followed by a strong bounce-back across all regions.
• Andalusia and the Valencian Community are the largest markets of the group and are major drivers of the national trend.
• The Balearic Islands market is the most volatile, experiencing more extreme highs and lows.
• All above coastal regions exhibit a clear seasonal pattern, with sales generally dipping in the peak summer month of August. This seasonality is particularly strong in the Balearic Islands and Andalucia.