Stats Deep Dive: Golden Triangle vs O.G. Costa del Sol
If you like stats, you´re going to love this… There is a lot to unpack here. The real estate market on the Costa del Sol shows a clear division in price and buyer demographics, according to data from the new Spanish Notaries portal for the 12 months ending September 2025. Analysis of sales in six major municipalities groups them into two market areas: the premium Golden Triangle, which includes Marbella, Benahavís, and Estepona, and the CDS O.G., comprising Mijas, Fuengirola, and Benalmádena.
The CDS O.G. (Original Costa del Sol) refers to coastal municipalities historically developed for tourism during the mid-20th century boom. These areas retain a strong identity distinct from the newer, luxury-focused Golden Triangle developments.
The Golden Triangle dominates both in sales volume and, significantly, in property value.
Market Performance Comparison (October 2024 – September 2025)
| Municipality | Group | Total Sales (12 Months) | % Foreign Buyers | Estimated Foreign Sales | Average Price €/m2 | Average Amount (€) | Top 3 Foreign Nationalities |
| Marbella | Golden Triangle | 4,366 | 63.25% | 2,760 | 4,241 | 712,249 | 1. United Kingdom, 2. Sweden, 3. Netherlands |
| Benahavís | Golden Triangle | 720 | 83.13% | 599 | 3,972 | 915,398 | 1. United Kingdom, 2. Sweden, 3. Belgium |
| Estepona | Golden Triangle | 3,548 | 70.09% | 2,487 | 3,045 | 393,521 | 1. Netherlands, 2. United Kingdom, 3. Poland |
| Golden Triangle | 8,634 | 67.61% | 5,846 | 3,712 | 599,021 | ||
| Mijas | CDS O.G. | 3,461 | 67.42% | 2,333 | 2,749 | 354,056 | 1. United Kingdom, 2. Netherlands, 3. Poland |
| Fuengirola | CDS O.G. | 2,207 | 56.31% | 1,243 | 3,561 | 365,561 | 1. Sweden, 2. Finland, 3. Netherlands |
| Benalmádena | CDS O.G. | 2,227 | 46.67% | 1,039 | 2,949 | 291,250 | 1. Italy, 2. Netherlands, 3. United Kingdom |
| CDS O.G. | 7,895 | 58.62% | 4,615 | 3,003 | 339,266 |
Price and Volume
The Golden Triangle reported 8,634 total sales, exceeding the CDS O.G.’s 7,895 total sales by 739 transactions. The average price gap is substantial. The Golden Triangle’s weighted average price was 3,712 €/m2, a premium of 709 €/m2 over the CDS O.G.’s average of 3,003 €/m2.
The difference in average transaction amounts is pronounced. Buyers in the Golden Triangle spent an average of €599,021 per transaction, while buyers in the CDS O.G. spent €339,266.
Demographic Insight
The median age of property buyers across the region is tightly clustered. In the Golden Triangle, all three municipalities (Marbella, Benahavís, and Estepona) report a median buyer age of 52 years. The CDS O.G. group shows a small range, spanning from 50 years in Benalmádena to 56 years in Fuengirola, indicating a largely consistent buyer demographic profile across the Costa del Sol.
Market Dynamics: Housing Supply
The two groups show differing trends in the composition of housing sales.
| Group | Weighted Average New Housing Share | Weighted Average Second-hand Housing Share |
| Golden Triangle | 12.92% | 87.08% |
| CDS O.G. | 15.48% | 84.52% |
New Housing: The CDS O.G. group has a higher weighted average share of new housing sales at 15.48%, compared to 12.92% in the Golden Triangle.
Second-hand Market: Both regions are dominated by the second-hand market, which accounts for over 84% of sales in both groups.
Municipality Extremes: Fuengirola has the highest new housing share at 29.45% (presumably because the massive resort of Higueron falls within the municipality), while Benahavís has the lowest at 3.06%, demonstrating significant variation in construction activity.
Spanish Buyers
Spanish citizens represent the foundational domestic market for the Costa del Sol. Their share is significantly higher in the CDS O.G. group, underscoring the area’s appeal to permanent residents or domestic second-home owners.
| Municipality | % National Buyers | Estimated National Sales |
| Marbella | 36.75% | 1,605 |
| Benahavís | 16.87% | 121 |
| Estepona | 29.91% | 1,061 |
| Mijas | 32.58% | 1,128 |
| Fuengirola | 43.69% | 964 |
| Benalmádena | 53.33% | 1,188 |
| Golden Triangle | 32.39% | 2,787 |
| CDS O.G. | 41.38% | 3,280 |
Market Share: The CDS O.G. group has a weighted average of 41.38% national buyers, nearly 9 percentage points higher than the Golden Triangle’s 32.39%.
Benalmádena’s Domestic Strength: Benalmádena has the strongest domestic market, with National Buyers accounting for 53.33% of all sales, making it the only municipality where Spanish buyers are the majority.
Benahavís’s International Focus: Benahavís shows the smallest domestic share at only 16.87%, reinforcing its status as the most internationally focused municipality in the region.
Sales Volume: The CDS O.G. group recorded approximately 3,280 sales to national buyers, exceeding the Golden Triangle’s 2,787 national sales.
Key Foreign Buyer Nationalities
The market data reveals varying degrees of concentration for specific European buyer nationalities. By applying the foreign buyer percentages to the overall sales figures, we can estimate the transaction volume for these five groups: British, Polish, Dutch, Belgian, and Swedish.
| Municipality | Total Sales | British (%) | British Sales | Polish (%) | Polish Sales | Dutch (%) | Dutch Sales | Belgian (%) | Belgian Sales | Swedish (%) | Swedish Sales |
| Marbella | 4,366 | 13.5% | 590 | 5.25% | 229 | 8.64% | 377 | 0% | 0 | 9.07% | 396 |
| Benahavís | 720 | 17.8% | 128 | 0% | 0 | 8% | 58 | 9% | 65 | 9.60% | 69 |
| Estepona | 3,548 | 13.5% | 479 | 7.9% | 280 | 15.84% | 562 | 6.53% | 232 | 6.35% | 225 |
| Mijas | 3,461 | 19.89% | 689 | 6.32% | 219 | 10.45% | 362 | 0% | 0 | 6.32% | 219 |
| Fuengirola | 2,207 | 0% | 0 | 7.25% | 160 | 7.76% | 171 | 0% | 0 | 13.74% | 303 |
| Benalmádena | 2,227 | 7.36% | 164 | 0% | 0 | 9.05% | 202 | 0% | 0 | 0% | 0 |
| TOTAL ESTIMATED SALES | 16,529 | 2,050 | 888 | 1,732 | 297 | 1,212 |
(Note: Percentages listed are the share of Foreign Buyers, not Total Sales. Estimated Sales are rounded.)
Swedish Buyers
Swedish buyers maintain a significant and consistent presence, particularly dominating the market in Fuengirola.
Prominence: Sweden is the top foreign nationality in Fuengirola (13.74% of foreign sales), highlighting the area’s strong appeal to Nordic buyers. They are also ranked highly in both Marbella (9.07%) and Benahavís (9.60%).
Sales Volume: Marbella saw the highest estimated volume of Swedish sales at approximately 396 transactions, followed closely by Fuengirola (303 sales).
British Buyers
British buyers remain the most dominant foreign group across the region, particularly in established international markets.
Prominence: The United Kingdom is the single largest foreign nationality in Mijas (19.89% of foreign sales) and Benahavís (17.8%). They hold a consistent market share of 13.5% in both Marbella and Estepona.
Sales Volume: Mijas saw the highest estimated volume of British sales at approximately 689 transactions, followed closely by Marbella (590 sales).
Dutch Buyers
Dutch buyers show a strong, consistent presence across both market groups, often ranking second or third.
Prominence: The Netherlands is the top foreign buyer in Estepona (15.84%), securing a top-three position in five out of the six municipalities, with high concentration in Mijas (10.45%) and Benalmádena (9.05%).
Sales Volume: Estepona registered the highest volume of Dutch sales at an estimated 562 transactions, making them a crucial market driver in the western area of the Golden Triangle.
Polish Buyers
Polish buyers are a significant force in the property market, particularly in the Golden Triangle and its immediate surroundings.
Prominence: Poland is a top-three nationality in Estepona (7.9%), Fuengirola (7.25%), Mijas (6.32%), and Marbella (5.25%).
Sales Volume: The highest estimated volume of sales to Polish nationals occurred in Estepona (approx. 280 transactions) and Marbella (229 sales).
Belgian Buyers
Belgian buyers exhibit a highly concentrated presence, appearing only in the statistics for the Golden Triangle municipalities.
Prominence: Belgium is most prominent in Benahavís (9% of foreign sales) and is a top-three buyer in Estepona (6.53%).
Sales Volume: Estepona registered the largest volume of Belgian sales, with an estimated 232 transactions, significantly higher than the 65 sales estimated in Benahavís.
Methodology & Limitations
Stats and data can only take you so far… experienced agents will know how to interpret and add context to the stats; less experienced agents should beware of the following limitations.
- Data Source: Figures are based on aggregated 12-month transaction data from the Spanish Notaries (October 2024–September 2025). Only completed sales are included.
- Geographic Definitions:
Golden Triangle: Marbella, Benahavís, Estepona
O.G. Costa del Sol: Mijas, Fuengirola, Benalmádena
These groupings simplify highly diverse micro-markets within each municipality.
- Property Mix: Average €/m² and average transaction values combine apartments, townhouses and villas; new builds and resales; sea-front and inland homes. Differences in product mix can significantly influence headline averages.
- Market Snapshot: Notaries data reflects finalised sales only. It does not capture asking-price reductions, time on market, withdrawn listings, developer incentives or unsold inventory.
- Foreign-Buyer Share: Percentages represent buyers’ nationalities at the moment of purchase. These segments can shift rapidly due to currency movements, tax changes or macroeconomic factors in origin countries.
- Rental & Regulatory Context: The data does not include rental yields, occupancy trends or evolving regulations for short-term rentals -factors that may materially affect investment returns.
- Interpretation: These figures provide a helpful comparison of broad market dynamics, but they are not a substitute for neighbourhood-level analysis or property-specific due diligence.
